If you've been keeping an eye on the property market over winter, you'll know things have cooled. Home values slipped again in August – the fifth month in a row – and Brisbane eased too, down 1.0% for the month. At the same time, there's a real chance interest rates will rise again before September is out.
That combination can feel unsettling, but it isn't all bad news. For buyers, a slower market means more choice and a little more breathing room. For homeowners, it's a good moment to check your loan is still pulling its weight. Here's what September's numbers tell us, and what they could mean for you.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the cash rate at 4.35% at its August meeting. Its next decision is due at 2.30pm on Tuesday 29 September, and many economists now think another rise is coming – either this month or in November.
So why is a rise on the table when inflation is falling? It comes down to which measure of inflation you look at.
The headline figure, the one you'll usually hear on the news, dropped to 3.5% in the year to July, down from 3.8% in June. That's welcome. But the RBA pays closer attention to something called trimmed mean inflation. It sets aside the most extreme price jumps and falls each month – things like fuel, which can swing sharply – so the underlying trend is easier to see. That measure stayed at 3.6%, still above the RBA's target range of 2–3%.
Put simply, the cost of everyday goods and services is still rising faster than the RBA would like, and lifting interest rates is its main tool for slowing that down.
If the RBA does move, economists expect a rise of 0.25 percentage points. As a rough guide, that adds about $16 a month for every $100,000 you owe on a principal-and-interest loan – so around $95 to $100 a month on a $600,000 loan.
Illustrative example only, based on a principal-and-interest loan with 30 years remaining and a variable rate between 5.5% and 6.75% before the rise. Your figure will depend on your balance, your rate, your remaining term and whether your lender passes the change on in full.
If that number makes you a little nervous, you're not alone, and it's a good reason to look at your loan now rather than later. If it's been a year or two since you last checked your rate, it's worth finding out whether a sharper one is available, either with your current lender or elsewhere.
Nationally, home values fell 0.9% in August, according to Cotality. That's the fifth monthly fall in a row, and values are now 3.6% below their March peak.
What stands out this time is how widespread the dip has become. Over winter, 93% of capital city suburbs recorded a fall in values – more than double the 45.8% that did in autumn. Earlier in the year, the easing was mostly at the pricier end of the market. It's now reaching more affordable homes too, although higher-value properties are still feeling it most.
Sydney led the way, down 1.4% for the month. Melbourne and Canberra each fell 1.1%, Brisbane dropped 1.0%, and Adelaide and Perth were both down 0.8%. Darwin was the only capital city where values rose.
Brisbane has had a remarkable run. Even after the recent dip, values are 64.1% higher than they were five years ago, so this cooler patch is a change of pace rather than a collapse. Here's where things stood at the end of August:
The bigger change is in how quickly homes are selling. Cotality reports that Brisbane is one of the capitals with the sharpest drop in sales, with volumes down more than 20% on a year ago.
Auctions have been especially quiet. In the week ending 30 August, Brisbane had the lowest clearance rate of any capital city at 27.4%. A clearance rate is the share of auction results that end in a sale, whether before, on or after auction day. Plenty of Brisbane homes are sold by private treaty rather than auction, so clearance rates only tell part of the story – but they do show buyers are taking their time.
Cotality's research director, Tim Lawless, says longer selling times, bigger vendor discounts and low clearance rates all point to a buyer's market – even though many buyers are holding back for now.
If you're ready to buy, that can work in your favour. With less competition, you'll often have more time to inspect, compare and negotiate on price and conditions.
The catch is borrowing power. When a lender assesses your loan, it checks you could still manage the repayments if rates were higher than they are today. So if the cash rate goes up, the amount you can borrow may go down, even if nothing else about your situation has changed. We explain how that works in Has your borrowing power changed?
That's why it pays to get your finance sorted before you start making offers. A pre-approval gives you a clear budget to work with, but it's important to know what it does and doesn't cover – especially if you're bidding at auction in Queensland. Our guide to home loan pre-approval in Queensland walks you through it.
For most people with a mortgage, the most useful thing you can do right now is check that your rate is still competitive. Lenders don't always offer their best rates to existing customers, so a review can be worthwhile even if you're happy where you are.
It's also worth knowing where your equity sits, particularly if you bought in the past year or so. Equity is the difference between what your home is worth and what you owe on it. Falling values don't change your loan balance, but they can change how much equity you have to work with if you're thinking about renovating, upgrading or investing.
Property markets move in cycles, and a quieter spring can open doors for people who are prepared. Whether you're buying, refinancing or simply want to know where your loan stands before the RBA's next decision, we're happy to talk it through.
We work with more than 45 lenders, and under the Best Interests Duty we're required to recommend what suits your circumstances – including telling you when staying where you are is the right answer.
This article contains general information only and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not tax, legal or financial advice. Market figures are point-in-time and change monthly, and economists' forecasts are not guarantees. Repayment examples are illustrative only. Information current as at 16/09/2026.
'We', 'us' and 'our' refer to McIntyre Finance (Credit Representative number 519302 is authorised under Australian Credit Licence Number 389328) and our related businesses. Connective Credit Services Pty Ltd, Level 29, 555 Collins Street, Melbourne VIC 3000. Phone 1300 656 637. Complaints: complaints@connective.com.au
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